Inland Plains '04-Present
Inland Plains 2010
The Inland Plains did not follow the pattern of the rest of our territory due to the phenomenon of the Eagle Ford Shale, an oil and gas rich formation that runs east to west, just south of San Antonio, which is possibly the largest and most important mineral play in recent Texas history. Incredible bonus payments are reported as high as $10,000/acre, JUST FOR LEASING MINERAL RIGHTS! New wealth is being created in the area, and the recipients of that wealth, being mostly long time landowners, are using it to purchase more land as close to home as possible. As a result, we have actually seen some overall price stabilization in this and adjacent areas, as there are check-writers out and about, closing deals. We now are actually seeing some speculators move in to try to take advantage of the situation. Can you imagine that? In our Great State? Due to the mineral play, many properties have been stripped of minerals, making them more difficult to market, which helped keep sales volume down for most of the year, though that trend began to change in last quarter of 2010, and continues in early 2011. We saw asking prices in Gonzales County hold pretty steady, with a 514 acre sale near Waelder with some minerals trade for $2,715/acre. A high fenced 515 acres south of Seguin, in Guadalupe County, fetched $3,250/acre. Goliad and Bee Counties saw asking prices in the range of $2,500/acre for unimproved land, Live Oak slightly less. Wilson County saw a couple of solid sales directed by this office, including 293 acres on Hwy. 97 east of Floresville for $4,000/acre, as well as 192 acres near Sutherland Springs with spring fed creek for $3,950/acre. Another average Wilson sale of 632 acres was reported at $2,590/acre. Atascosa County saw a couple of prime, larger tracts without minerals shopped hard in the $2,700/acre range unsuccessfully. Southern Bexar County saw prices fall slightly on the overall, while Karnes County again saw little to no activity. Again, quality makes a difference here, as in other areas, and there is quite a disparity between the very top and the very bottom – perhaps a range of $1,500/acre to $3,500/acre! If the Eagle Ford lives up to wildest expectations, expect to see prices in this area begin to creep upward again, perhaps the only zone in our territory that we can rationally have such a hope for. We see average land values holding in the $2,500/acre range in this zone. If the Eagle Ford bombs out (bad), then it reverts back to the pre-Eagle Ford pattern of slow retreat roughly equivalent to what’s happening in the balance of our territory.
Inland Plains 2009
The Inland Plains did not report much significant activity in 2009, as asking prices and willing buyer prices did not merge very often. A pretty nice 912 acres west of Gonzales fetched $3,289/acre, a price that would seem to be an aberration. Asking prices in Gonzales County remain in the $3,000/acre range, but activity has slowed dramatically, and will likely remain slow until prices adjust. Wilson County did not report any sales of magnitude, and this office shopped the very nice, 192 acre Alum Creek farmstead for $4,650/acre with no takers. A 204 acre tract in same area was shopped at $3,950/acre with same results. We did see sale of 200 acres just NE of Stockdale for about $2,350/acre, an average property with good road frontage and some minerals. A couple of larger area tracts were offered at $2,500 - $3,500/acre with no takers. Karnes County was inactive, with San Antonio River properties offered for as low as $1,900/acre, no bites. Parts of this area are now sizzling with the excitement of the Eagleford Shale, with rumors of O/G leases paying bonuses of over $1,000/acre! This is reputed to be the hottest petro play in the state since the Barnett Shale bonanza near Fort Worth. This area, being more agricultural in nature and less speculative/development, should hold value better than some of the wildly fluctuating areas such as Kerrville, for example, though we do anticipate land values to slowly decline for the foreseeable future here. Again, rigid sellers hold their ground, picky buyers look and wait. The Seguin area is seeing much development, with land prices in the immediate vicinity of the community still increasing due to development pressure, though the outlying areas of the county are stagnant at this time. Bee and Live Oak Counties don’t report much in the way of larger sales, but buyers are still pulling the trigger on nice, smaller places of less than $1M, we are advised, if the price is right. The continued interest in the Carrizo Aquifer by San Antonio and Austin are dark clouds hovering over this area, though a few lucky landowners are likely to reap most of the rewards, to the detriment of all the others. Go figure! Hopefully justice will prevail, and water rights will become more properly and fairly defined.
Inland Plains 2008
The Inland Plains also saw a nosedive in sales activity, as land and ranch brokers got to catch up on their sleep from the frenzied 5 years previous. This office participated in sale of 170 acres on the San Marcos River at Luling for $4,700/acre with partial minerals, as well as 246 extra-nice acres near Smiley, in Gonzales County, for $3,620/acre with partial minerals. As with other areas, however, many of these area sellers refused to budge from their 2007 expectations, and most of them still own the land they were trying to sell. Several Guadalupe and San Marcos River sales in the $4,500/acre to $5,000/acre range were observed, and we believe that $5,000/acre is “the wall” for river properties in this area for the foreseeable future. As always, properties with good access, clean shape and average to good condition will command more than marginal ones. The “water wars” over the Carrizo Aquifer have slipped into the courts or mediation, with outcomes yet to be decided. Thirsty metropolitan areas are aggressively pursuing water development and marketing business models, but are being challenged by locals fearful of resource exploitation, and rightly so. Ironically, several large landowners have cut private deals with the water companies, and this may allow them to proceed with the exploitation while skirting around the organized, smaller landowner groups. We see asking prices in Gonzales County rarely below $3,000/acre, with corresponding slow sales activity. This is very similar to Lavaca County as well. Guadalupe County kept a steady pace thru most of 2008, but now shows signs of the times with decreased activity, and failed/stalled developments. We see asking prices rarely less than $3,000/acre in this zone, depending upon location and amenities, and are finding that buyers are willing to pay over $4,000/acre for the top 25% of land having many oaks, paved frontage and clean shape. Karnes County slowed to a crawl, as average asking prices topped $2,500/acre. For sellers with quality merchandise, it’s still a good time to sell, but price your offering competitively from the get-go, keep it looking its Sunday best, and don’t try to hang on to too many minerals or water rights if you want to have a successful closing.
Inland Plains 2007
The Inland Plains remain somewhat of a sleeper, though values continue to climb, but not to levels of the Hill Country as of yet. As median prices approached $2,750/acre, activity slowed but didn’t stop. By year’s end, sales of near $3,000/acre were being registered, including an 863 acre transaction on pavement near Belmont for $2,800/acre. River sales on the San Marcos and Guadalupe of 100+ acre parcels averaged $5,000/acre. In eastern Bexar County, a 273 acre live water parcel was purchased for $2,600/acre and resold for $3,400/acre before end of year. Guadalupe County saw intense developer activity around Seguin, and several sales in the sandy country south of town topped $3,000/acre, including a parcel of 1,900 acres on highway that checked in at $3,300/acre with improvements. DeWitt County ranchland routinely trades for above $2,500/acre, and minerals are becoming scarce and valuable in DeWitt/Karnes/Gonzales Counties. Marginal land with no oaks and poor access has hit the wall at $2,500/acre in this area, but the top shelf stuff with good water, oaks, views and access can fetch up to $4,000/acre. Eastern Karnes County saw a 3,000 acre parcel with fair minerals trade for $1,850/acre, while Lavaca County soared to $3,000/acre for ordinary land. This firm participated in a transaction involving 160 acres NE of Gonzales for $2,300/acre, and offered a slick 250 acres with big irrigation well near Smiley for $4,000/acre with no takers, though a contract has been accepted in early 2008. This area has become ground zero for exploitation by San Antonio and Austin, who seek water, gravel, topsoil and other natural resources for their exploding development. This has resulted in compromising situations for landowners, who face the question of allowing exploitation of their lands for profit vs. preserving them for austerity. As we all know, $ win that battle 90% of the time. Locals are organizing to oppose and/or present a united front on issue of water marketing in particular, the outcome of which shall prove to be quite interesting
Inland Plains 2006
The Inland Plains area showed perhaps the most striking gains of our territory, leaping from the 2005benchmark of $1,500/acre to a 2006 median of close to $2,500/acre. This represents an increase of 200% in the last 3 years! Gonzales County continues to catch the eye of investors and users alike due to its excellent proximity to Houston, Austin, San Antonio and the Gulf Coast. This land is pretty to look at, will produce quality beef and wildlife and possesses mineral and groundwater potential. A sale of 100 acres with no improvements on a major creek near Smiley is confirmed at $2,650/acre. The lowest sales included 900 acres in southern Gonzales County for $1,875/acre, and a rough 800 acres near Ottine for $1,850/acre. Some smaller San Marcos and Guadalupe River sales checked in at $4,000/acre. Goliad County hit the $2,000/acre mark as its benchmark, though the more remote locations to the south are far below that. Minerals are scarce in Goliad, Karnes and Victoria Counties, and oak trees and degree of refinement are major value contributors. DeWitt County saw average 200 acre parcels reach the $2,000/acre level, with river tracts 50% higher or more. Lavaca County, too, topped the $2,000/acre mark for average land, though mineral availability is increasingly scarce due to gas play. Even long-suffering Karnes County approached the $2,000/acre mark, and a significant transaction in early 2007 of over 3,000 acres logged in at $1,850/acre. As always, presence of oak trees, public road access, enough brush to hold deer and ample surface water are prime value additions. Parcels lacking these attributes are still docked on price by the buying public, and marginal improvements are found to add little to no value.
Inland Plains 2005
The Inland Plains area showed a dramatic surge in 2005, with $1,500/acre becoming the benchmark for wooded parcels. This number continues to rise into 2006. The record appreciation rate is estimated at 25% for the year, and this appears to be running the same course into 2006. A sale of 500 acres on the Guadalupe River east of Gonzales was facilitated by our office at $1,950/acre with a pinch of minerals. A sale of 150 acres on a live creek near Smiley is verified at $2,650/acre, though improvements were nice and included an irrigation well. Karnes County moved up nicely, with sales on the San Antonio River reported at close to $2,000/acre, and brush land to the west pushing $1,500/acre. Minerals becoming harder and harder to get due to play east of Kenedy. The Seguin area has seen fragmentation to the point of no return, and rooftop developers are scouring the area for flat farmland to plunder and pillage with streets, utilities and crackerbox houses. Guadalupe County in general has topped $2,000/acre, with nothing on the Guadalupe River selling for less than $2,500/acre in 2005. DeWitt County has also spiked, with river sales exceeding $2,000/acre. The driver is the Houston market, now beginning to realize the true value and usefulness of this land, coupled with the shorter drive time as opposed to the Hill Country. Lavaca County saw some transactions on the Lavaca River under the $2,000/acre mark, and there were still some wooded hunting parcels in the more remote areas available for less than $1,500/acre. This will change in 2006, and we fully expect to see the magic number hit $2,000/acre for tracts with oaks, decent access and at least a smidge of minerals.
Inland Plains 2004
The Inland Plains area of DeWitt, Gonzales, Caldwell, Karnes and Guadalupe Counties showed steady gains, but not of the spectacular variety of the Central Hills. A shortage of larger parcels was evident throughout the year, with only a couple of sales of 1,000+ acre parcels reported. This includes the 2,200 acre Peach Creek tract in NE Gonzales County selling for $915/acre in early spring, then having 1,500 acres split off and resold for $1,400/acre in the fall. This property has outstanding tree cover with extensive road frontage, and is regarded as above average with marginal minerals. Demand for 75 to 250 acre parcels remains strong, with prices of $1,300 to $1,600/acre being the norm. Significant minerals can add up to $200/acre to value in these areas. Several low-lying Guadalupe & San Marcos River ranches in the 500 acre range changed hands in the $1,400/acre bracket. % of flood plain is a major value factor, as is tree cover. Lowlands with no trees are hard to sell, and rolling, wooded lands fetch top prices and sell quickly. Rolling, open properties stay on the market longer, even though there is a fairly strong supply of ag-type buyers with low interest money to spend. Another price driver in this region is lakes/lake sites, as creeks and rivers usually create a large % of “boggy” country. Sizable lakes offer recreational potential for fisheries, waterfowl and boating, not to mention water and jet skiing, minus the problem of flooding. Overall, this zone will continue to see a shortage of large parcels available for purchase, but when they do hit the market, they should sell quickly for $1,100/acre to $1,500/acre, depending upon access, location, minerals and tree cover.
